No: the world is not predicted to end on Friday, November 13, 2026. That date comes from a real 1960 paper, “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” but its authors used a mathematical model to extrapolate accelerating population growth toward a singularity—not to forecast an asteroid, war, or sudden apocalypse.
What the 1960 paper said
Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot published “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” in Science on November 4, 1960. The three authors were electrical engineering staff at the University of Illinois. The paper’s title named the date its equation produced when extrapolated, not a scheduled end-of-world event. Read the original paper in Science.
The authors were interested in whether human population growth might behave differently from the usual pattern in which crowding increases competition and slows growth. They considered whether communication and coalition-building could make cooperation more effective as population grew, allowing growth to accelerate. They applied that idea to world population, which they considered less affected by local migration and fluctuation than smaller populations.
How the date was calculated
Von Foerster and his coauthors assembled 24 estimates of world population, covering roughly 100 generations from the time of Christ through 1958. They checked the estimates for independence and used least squares to fit the parameters of their chosen model. The resulting fitted singularity date was A.D. 2026.87 ± 5.50 years; the root-mean-square deviation across the data points was approximately 7 percent.
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Those figures describe a fit to historical estimates and the date implied by continuing that fitted curve. The approximately 7 percent deviation is a measure of how closely the model fit its data points; it is not a measure of the probability that the date would come true. Nor does a close fit to past data establish that the same mechanism or trend will continue unchanged.
What “doomsday” meant
In the equation, population tends toward infinity as time approaches a finite date. That mathematical behavior is called a singularity. It is not a physically plausible claim that Earth could contain infinitely many people. In the real world, finite resources and changing conditions would force population dynamics to change before such a limit. A 2013 commentary in PNAS explains that the singularity marks a shift to different dynamics, potentially including population decline, rather than literal infinity. Read the PNAS commentary.
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The authors’ famous line was: “our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death.” In context, it dramatized the consequences they associated with unchecked accelerating growth; it was not a prediction of a sudden catastrophe on the calculated date.
That distinction was already visible in contemporary coverage. In November 1960, TIME wrote that von Foerster did not really believe humanity would breed itself to “universe-filling infinity” in 66 years. The magazine presented the equation as a vivid warning about indefinitely accelerating growth, not a literal countdown to the end of the world. Read TIME’s 1960 account.
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Why the authors raised the alarm
The paper argued that people could take control of population dynamics rather than wait for an external environmental limit. Given the assumptions and conditions of 1960, its authors proposed keeping fertility low enough to stabilize population. They wrote that this would mean cutting the birth rate to about half its value or reducing average family size to a little above two children.
That proposal belongs to the paper’s historical argument and context. It should not be treated as current demographic or policy guidance: it follows from the authors’ 1960 model and assumptions, not from a contemporary assessment of population policy.
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What happened to the projection
A 2026 retrospective by historian Alan MacEachern, republished by Phys.org from The Conversation, says world population began falling behind the model’s forecasts around 1993. It also reports, citing Our World in Data, that the global birth rate is now slightly less than half its 1960 level. Those are comparisons reported by MacEachern; the birth-rate figure is not independently verified here. Read the retrospective.
The episode illustrates why an equation that describes a historical pattern can still fail as a literal long-range forecast. The projection depended on a selected curve, historical estimates available through 1958, and the assumption that the trend and its underlying dynamics would continue. A textbook treatment of population modeling uses the case to make the same distinction between a conditional extrapolation and proof that a trend will persist. See the Princeton University Press textbook.
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