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Franklin Templeton

Franklin Templeton Retirement Head on the Biggest Behavioral Mistake During Volatility

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Steve McKay, Franklin Templeton’s Head of U.S. Retirement, called the biggest behavioral mistake “turning legitimate economic concerns into an all-or-nothing investment decision.” The quote appears in a Yahoo Finance search excerpt attributing it to an interview with MarketWatch; the full interview, its date and surrounding context could not be verified. The useful takeaway is not to ignore economic risks, but to avoid letting alarming headlines alone dictate a sweeping portfolio move.

What McKay means by an “all-or-nothing” decision

Market volatility can reflect real economic concerns. The behavioral mistake McKay identified is converting those concerns into a binary choice—such as abandoning an investment strategy wholesale—rather than considering how a measured response fits an investor’s circumstances. Franklin Templeton describes volatility as a natural feature of investing and says its retirement guidance is general, not tailored to any particular investor.

This is not an argument that investors should never change their portfolios. A change in spending needs, time horizon, risk capacity or ability to tolerate losses can justify revisiting a plan. The distinction is whether a decision follows a deliberate review of those factors or is an abrupt reaction to headlines.

Why volatility can be especially consequential in retirement

For a retiree drawing from investments, losses early in a withdrawal period can have a lasting effect. Selling investments to fund withdrawals during a downturn leaves fewer assets invested to participate in a potential recovery. Franklin Templeton calls this sequence-of-returns risk; the impact depends on the timing of returns and withdrawals, not simply on the average return over a period.

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There are behavioral risks on both sides of a market swing. Panic selling can lock an investor into a reaction, while chasing recent winners or taking on more risk after strong performance can also pull a portfolio away from its intended strategy. Diversification and a suitable allocation do not prevent losses, but a plan can help keep decisions tied to goals rather than recent market moves.

How to evaluate a portfolio change

Before making a major adjustment, compare the proposed change with the factors that should shape a retirement strategy. These checks are a decision framework, not individualized investment advice.

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Factor Question to ask
Time horizon When will you need to draw on this money, and how long might it need to support you?
Withdrawals and liquidity What spending needs must be met soon, and what assets are available to cover them?
Risk tolerance and capacity Could you withstand a further decline financially and emotionally without disrupting essential goals?
Diversification Would the proposed change leave the portfolio more concentrated or less aligned with its intended mix?
Reason for the change Does it respond to a change in your plan or circumstances, or mainly to recent headlines and market moves?

Franklin Templeton recommends periodic review and rebalancing rather than reacting to every market move. Its guidance gives one to two years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds as a general example of a reserve. That is not a universal target: the appropriate amount depends on an individual’s spending, income sources and plan.

What historical “best days” comparisons do—and don’t—show

Franklin Templeton presents a J.P. Morgan Asset Management analysis showing that, from 2004 to 2024, an investor who missed the 10 best days in the S&P 500 would have had half the overall return of an investor who remained fully invested. The data are as of July 31, 2024, and the figure is a historical illustration reported by Franklin Templeton, not a forecast.

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The comparison illustrates a risk of abruptly exiting the market: strong days may occur during volatile periods, and missing them can reduce historical returns. It does not establish that every investor should stay fully invested in the same assets, nor does it eliminate the possibility of losses. Franklin Templeton cautions that past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Keep the evidence in perspective

Franklin Templeton’s U.S. retirement-volatility page cites a MagnifyMoney (LendingTree) survey from August 2021 in which 66% of investors said they had made emotional decisions they later regretted and 47% said they struggled to keep emotions out of investment decisions. These are dated survey findings, not current measurements.

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The same page says a retirement may last 25 years, citing the Transamerica Institute 2025 Retirement Survey, an August 2021 Journal of Financial Planning source and CDC life-expectancy data. The cited figure is a planning consideration, not a forecast for every retiree. A long time horizon can make growth important, while withdrawals and near-term spending needs still affect how much risk a household can bear.

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