Publishing wins and losses together lets readers inspect a model’s record rather than seeing only selected successes. It is a useful form of accountability—but a historical record is evidence to examine, not a promise of future betting returns.
What a published track record is meant to show
This topic matches Winsmore’s public explanation of how its horse racing model works. Winsmore says it publishes a pick for each race and records the outcome, including losing runs such as “0 from 11.” Those are the publisher’s descriptions; the figures have not been independently audited here.
Showing losses matters because a record made up only of winning examples cannot show how often the model misses, how losing runs occur, or how its results vary over time. A complete record gives readers material to assess the evidence for themselves.
What Winsmore says about its model’s data and volume
Winsmore says its model uses data from more than 90,000 UK races and over 800,000 individual runs since 2020, alongside Betfair pricing data dating back to 2015. It also says it tracks more than 900 selections each month and recalibrates as results settle. These are claims published by Winsmore, not independently verified measures of predictive performance. The publication year of the surfaced explanation was not stated.
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Large historical datasets can provide useful context for developing and evaluating racing models. The Jockey Club describes Equibase as the Thoroughbred industry’s official database and has announced historical past-performance data and results charts for research and evaluation. That context supports the relevance of historical data; it does not validate any particular model.
How to check a racing model’s record
A win/loss count is only one part of a track record. Before comparing models, check how selections are defined, recorded, and settled, and what any return figure actually measures.
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- Coverage: Does the record include every qualifying selection and every loss, or only highlighted results? Are skipped races identified?
- Timing: Is each pick timestamped or otherwise fixed before the race result is known?
- Settlement: Which official result source is used? How are non-runners, void bets, dead heats, and later result corrections treated?
- Prices and returns: Is the figure a win rate, flat-stake profit or return on investment (ROI), or another measure? Which odds are used, and when were they captured?
- Scope and sample: What dates, race types, venues, and geographies are covered?
- Versions and corrections: Can readers identify the model version behind each pick and see whether historical data or reported figures were corrected?
These are practical questions for assessing transparency, not a third-party audit standard. They also matter because a win/loss count is not the same as profitability: returns depend on odds, stake assumptions, and settlement rules. FormRace’s published methodology illustrates that choices affect reported ROI and notes a historical pricing issue that required older figures to be rerun.
Why past results do not guarantee future performance
A historical record can help readers judge what a model has reported so far, but it cannot establish that the model will keep performing or guarantee betting returns. Winsmore says a strong long-run record can still contain losing days; FormRace likewise cautions that historical performance does not predict future results.
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Official racing statistics and horse performance figures are useful context, not proof of a model’s predictive accuracy. The British Horseracing Authority says its statistics are intended to make key data available to decision-makers and the wider public. It also explains that a performance figure is calculated for each horse in each race, with historical race context helping indicate the level normally needed to win or place. A horse rating describes racing performance; it is not a model’s success rate.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What transparency can—and cannot—establish
A public record can make a model’s claims more inspectable, especially when it shows losses alongside wins and explains its counting and settlement methods. It does not by itself prove that the selections are accurate, that reported returns can be reproduced, or that future results will resemble past ones.
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The Jockey Club’s Equibase announcement said that a full year of past-performance data and results charts was made available for research and evaluation. Jim Vanderbosch, Equibase vice president for sales and business development, said: “One of our top requests is the use of historical data from people looking to conduct research for a wide variety of purposes.” Historical information can support evaluation; readers still need transparent methods and complete, attributable results to assess a particular model.
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