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The United States can compete with China for AI capabilities and protect sensitive technologies while also seeking narrow cooperation on risks neither country can safely manage alone. Those policies address different problems: competition concerns leadership and security; cooperation can help reduce the chance that AI-related incidents escalate or cause harm across borders. Neither requires trusting the other government, and neither makes the tensions between them disappear.
Why compete with China on AI?
AI can strengthen civilian industries, research and public services, but it can also support military capabilities. U.S. concerns therefore include not only which country develops more capable systems, but also whether sensitive technologies could contribute to Chinese military systems and how much control the United States retains over technologies it considers strategically important.
One concrete tool is export control. The Government Accountability Office describes U.S. controls on sensitive dual-use goods, including advanced semiconductors, as a response to national-security concerns. Those concerns include the possibility that controlled technology could help China develop AI-powered military systems. A technology’s civilian uses do not necessarily remove that security concern: the same inputs may have both commercial and military relevance.
Controls are not a complete strategy for AI leadership, and their effects should not be treated as settled. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommends assessing how effective controls are while maximizing their impact and minimizing harm to U.S. and allied economies. That is a recommendation, not evidence that any particular control has succeeded or failed. In practice, policymakers must weigh the security risk being addressed against enforceability, coordination with allies, economic costs and the possibility that restrictions encourage alternative supply chains.
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Why cooperate if the two countries are competitors?
Strategic competition does not eliminate shared exposure to serious AI risks. A major incident, misuse or loss of control could have consequences that cross national borders, while military applications raise the stakes of misinterpretation and escalation. Communication can help governments understand what the other is doing in a crisis, even when they disagree about AI leadership, regulation or political values.
That is a case for selective cooperation, not strategic trust. A working contact channel or a technical discussion does not resolve disputes over export controls, verification, governance or national security. Nor should cooperation be assumed to require loosening restrictions on sensitive technology transfers. The relevant question is whether a specific measure can reduce a defined risk without creating unacceptable security or economic costs.
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Which cooperation options are concrete enough to consider?
The options below come from different kinds of activity: analytical recommendations, nonbinding expert dialogue, a reported diplomatic proposal and an earlier multilateral plan announcement. They should not be mistaken for a single implemented U.S.-China program.
| Option | Risk or purpose | Status and key constraint |
|---|---|---|
| AI incident communication | Share information about incidents that could have national-security significance and reduce the chance of misreading events. | In September 2026, the Associated Press reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had discussed a possible AI dialogue mechanism and that the United States proposed incident notification. The report does not establish Chinese acceptance, an agreement, or an operating channel. |
| Military-AI discussion | Discuss military uses of AI, including nuclear command and control, where misunderstandings could carry unusually high consequences. | Sandia National Laboratories’ 2025 analysis points to an agreement concerning AI in nuclear command and control reached in November 2024 as a basis for discussion. The analysis presents further engagement as an option, not proof of a broad or continuing cooperation program. |
| Interoperable safety testing and evaluation | Make it easier to compare how systems are evaluated and identify safety concerns across different settings. | A 2025 Track II consensus document recommends this kind of work. It is a dialogue recommendation, not a binding government commitment; agreement on methods and sharing results would still matter. |
| Research in non-sensitive civilian areas | Explore joint work in areas such as healthcare, biotechnology and green technology. | The 2025 Track II document proposes this as a possibility. It does not establish that joint projects exist, and the boundary between civilian research and security-sensitive work would need to be handled carefully. |
| Expert dialogue on loss of control and data issues | Discuss severe failure scenarios and practical questions involving datasets, copyright, ownership and synthetic data. | These are proposed subjects in the same nonbinding Track II document. Dialogue can clarify differences, but it cannot by itself verify behavior or settle disputes. |
| Multilateral scientific coordination | Support international exchange among AI safety institutes and other government-backed scientific offices. | In May 2024, the U.S. Commerce Department announced a strategic vision and plan for a global scientific network. That announcement establishes a plan, not the network’s current membership or activity. |
Sandia’s 2025 analysis also describes leader-level engagement and expert-rich Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogue—formats that can involve officials and outside experts, or experts without formal government negotiations. It suggests engaging allies, particularly the United Kingdom and Japan, if bilateral work is blocked. Sandia identifies differences over multilateral institutions and the values AI governance should reflect as obstacles to cooperation.
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What makes a cooperation proposal credible?
A useful proposal should be judged by the problem it addresses and by whether both sides can carry it out. Vague promises to make AI safer offer little reassurance if no one can tell what was promised, whether it happened or what follows a violation.
- Specific risk: Is the measure aimed at military use, cyber misuse, emergency incidents, loss of control or a defined civilian research area?
- Verifiability: Can participants observe, test or otherwise assess compliance? What evidence would be available if a commitment were breached?
- Reciprocity: Are the obligations comparable, and are both governments willing to share the information needed for the measure to work?
- Proportionate cost: Does the expected reduction in a specific risk justify possible costs to U.S. firms, allies or research?
- Durability: Can the channel survive a downturn in bilateral relations or a change in political leadership?
- Suitable forum: Is the issue best handled bilaterally, through expert dialogue, or through multilateral scientific coordination?
These tests help keep two policy tracks distinct. For example, restricting transfers of sensitive computing technology and maintaining a channel for communicating about emergencies would address different risks. One does not automatically prove or disprove the value of the other.
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What is official policy, and what remains advocacy or discussion?
The policy record needs dates and institutional distinctions. An October 24, 2024, National Security Memorandum on AI set out the prior U.S. administration’s stated objectives for AI leadership, national-security applications, and safety, security and trustworthiness. It is a dated official baseline, not a complete statement of the current administration’s policy.
Other sources have different standing. The Commission’s export-control recommendations are congressional advisory recommendations. Sandia’s 2025 analysis and the October 2025 Track II consensus document offer analytical and dialogue options, not adopted government policy. The September 2026 Senate committee letter calling for a formal agreement that would slow, and potentially pause, frontier AI development is advocacy by the letter’s signatory senators—not an executive-branch position or an existing agreement.
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Likewise, AP’s September 2026 reporting on possible U.S.-China talks is not confirmation of an outcome. Bessent was quoted as saying, “We want a shared vision of common goals and common threats.” That describes an expressed aim; it does not establish that the governments share such a vision or have agreed on how to act on it.
What remains unresolved about current talks?
The September 2026 reporting described a possible dialogue mechanism and a U.S. proposal for notification of significant AI incidents in the run-up to a planned leaders’ meeting. The material available here does not establish whether that meeting produced an agreement. It also does not specify who would participate, which events would trigger notification, what information would be shared, or whether any channel is operational. Those details matter: without them, a reported proposal should not be described as a functioning safeguard.
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