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A new national report estimates about 1.7 million skilled-trades job openings each year through 2035—but that is not 1.7 million new jobs, and it does not mean experts have no idea who could fill them. The figure combines new positions from growth with vacancies created when workers retire, change occupations, or otherwise leave. The report’s sharper warning is that formal training pathways prepare fewer people than projected demand requires, while many trainees do not complete a program or move into trade work. Whether a particular trade is short of workers depends on the occupation and local labor market.
What does 1.7 million openings a year actually mean?
Jobs for the Future (JFF) and the Burning Glass Institute estimate approximately 1.7 million annual openings across skilled-trades occupations through 2035. The estimate includes both positions created as employment grows and openings that arise when existing workers leave. It is a projection of hiring need, not a count of jobs currently vacant and not a forecast of 1.7 million net new jobs every year. The report projects more than 600,000 net new positions through 2035. JFF and Burning Glass Institute, September 2026 report.
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The report defines skilled trades as hands-on work to build, install, operate, maintain, repair, fabricate, or extract physical materials, products, equipment, systems, and infrastructure, where meaningful training is needed to reach competency. Its analysis covers 124 occupations in construction; installation, maintenance, and repair; production; and extraction.
Why replacement openings matter
When a worker retires or moves to another occupation, the resulting opening counts toward annual hiring need even if the employer does not add a position to its workforce. The report says nearly one-quarter of skilled-trades workers are age 55 or older, compared with 11% under age 25. That age profile points to substantial replacement pressure, alongside growth in some occupations. Report findings on workforce age and preparation.
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Who might fill the openings—and what is the gap?
The report estimates that measurable formal pathways prepare 55 people for every 100 workers needed. That is a warning about the scale of preparation relative to projected need, not a complete headcount of everyone who can enter a trade. The measure does not capture every route, particularly training developed directly by employers. It also does not establish that a specific number of positions will go unfilled: people can enter through pathways outside the measure, and demand varies by trade and place. JFF and Burning Glass Institute findings.
The report finds that 86 of the 124 occupations it analyzes are expected to grow or hold steady through 2035. That national outlook does not mean every trade is growing everywhere. A projected opening can reflect replacement rather than expansion, and statewide or regional prospects may differ from the national picture. The report’s companion dashboard offers state- and trade-specific profiles for examining local results. Companion state and trade dashboard.
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Why the national figure cannot identify every local shortage
Employers and job seekers need to distinguish projected openings from net growth, and replacement pressure from growth pressure. They also need local evidence about employers’ hiring needs and the entry routes available nearby. A national total cannot answer whether an individual town has a shortage of electricians, whether a particular training program feeds into local jobs, or which occupation has the strongest prospects for a new entrant.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →The report’s Labor Shortage Index is one comparative indicator, not a vacancy tally. It places electricians at the 85th percentile and industrial machinery mechanics and related occupations at the 98th percentile among 523 occupations scored. The index combines structural factors including workforce age, new entrants, schooling, licensing, AI exposure, and projected growth; it uses neither vacancy nor wage data. A high percentile therefore signals comparative structural pressure within the index, not a count of open jobs or a guarantee of a job offer. Report explanation of regional variation and the index; Labor Shortage Index details.
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How people enter the skilled trades
There is no single pipeline. The report attributes shares of skilled-trades employment to occupations whose typical entry route is a postsecondary credential, a Registered Apprenticeship, employer-led on-the-job training, or open entry. These shares describe occupations’ typical routes—not the actual route taken by each worker.
| Typical route for the occupation | Share of skilled-trades employment |
|---|---|
| Postsecondary credential | 35% |
| Registered Apprenticeship | 27% |
| Employer-led on-the-job training | 26% |
| Open entry | 13% |
Because these are classifications of occupations, they should not be read as a breakdown of workers’ personal training histories. The report also emphasizes that workplace learning is common and that training needs current tools and equipment. Report analysis of skilled-trades pathways.
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Starting training is not the same as entering a trade
The report tracks losses between program entry and trade employment. For every 100 apprenticeship starters, 48 complete; 29 enter a trade occupation within five years of leaving. Among every 100 entrants to related postsecondary programs, 48 complete and 34 work in a skilled trade. These figures show why the number of people who start training alone cannot demonstrate that a workforce need has been met. They do not mean that every program has the same outcomes or that attrition is inevitable; the report notes outcomes vary among programs. Training completion and career-entry findings.
Career navigation is another part of the transition. The report finds that 95% of counselors consider trade school valuable and credible, but 54% often recommend it and 28% often recommend apprenticeship. It also reports that 81% of parents and 71% of teens would be proud if they or their teen went to trade school. Positive views do not automatically tell a student which occupation, program, or employer to pursue, so access to clear information about training, skills, and earnings matters. Report findings on perceptions and recommendations.
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What a job seeker or employer should take from the forecast
If you are considering a trade
- Look up demand for the specific occupation and location rather than treating the national 1.7 million figure as a promise of local hiring.
- Ask a training provider about completion, licensing or credential requirements, employer connections, and how many graduates enter relevant work.
- Compare the routes available—postsecondary study, Registered Apprenticeship, employer training, or direct entry—against the requirements and employers in your area.
If you are an employer or workforce planner
- Plan for replacement as well as expansion; retirements and other exits create hiring needs even where employment is not growing rapidly.
- Assess whether training is connected to actual local jobs and whether learners have the equipment, support, and navigation needed to finish and enter work.
- Use state- and occupation-specific evidence to target investment; national totals and a structural index do not substitute for local hiring information.
The report’s overall case is not that no one can name potential workers. It is that the measured preparation pipeline is smaller than projected need, exits from training pathways matter, and the right response depends on local conditions. The study estimates that 18 million people work in skilled trades and that these occupations contributed an estimated $3.8 trillion to U.S. GDP in 2025—figures that underline the sector’s scale, not a guarantee that every trade or region faces the same outlook. JFF and Burning Glass Institute, September 2026 report.
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