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Economy

Moody’s Mark Zandi: Higher Interest Rates Are Already Weighing on the Economy

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Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, warned that higher interest rates are already weighing on the economy—but he described a conditional risk, not a prediction of an imminent recession or collapse. In a September 28, 2026 interview with Yahoo Finance, he said the damage would depend on how long rates stayed elevated and whether oil and geopolitical pressures eased.

What Zandi means by “already damaging”

In an interview with Yahoo Finance senior reporter Jennifer Schonberger, published September 28, 2026, Zandi said: “I think the economy is going to start to sag as a result of the rate increases.” He pointed to both the Federal Reserve’s benchmark policy rate and higher long-term bond yields, which influence borrowing rates for households and businesses. His warning is about pressure building through financing costs, not evidence that a sudden economic break has already occurred. Yahoo Finance

The report says Zandi had called a rate hike before the September Fed meeting a “serious Fed policy mistake.” After the increase, he said economic damage was already happening. The interview’s central question is how long elevated rates persist.

How long can rates stay high before the economy struggles?

Zandi set out two different scenarios. If elevated rates lasted only a few months, the Iran conflict ended, oil prices fell, and the additional rate hikes markets anticipated did not occur, he expected higher rates to hurt the economy but not hobble it. If high rates continued much longer and into the following year, he expected conditions to worsen: “But if it goes on for much longer than that and into next year, I think the economy will really start to struggle.”

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That distinction matters: Zandi did not say a downturn was certain. The severity of his forecast depends on the duration of high borrowing costs and whether the pressures he named subside.

What rates and market expectations did the report cite?

The figures below are the market context reported by Yahoo Finance on September 28, 2026. They are a dated snapshot, not independently verified readings here; market rates and expectations can change quickly.

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Reported figure Context in Yahoo Finance’s September 28 report
3.75%–4% policy-rate range The article said the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point on September 16, the first hike in more than three years.
5.22% 10-year Treasury yield The yield on the Monday of publication, after reaching a 20-year high the preceding week.
7.5% 30-year fixed mortgage rate Described in the report as the highest since spring 2024.
Three to four additional hikes Rate increases priced by markets over the following year, including one more in 2026; these were market expectations, not a Federal Reserve commitment.

Who Zandi says is most exposed?

Higher borrowing costs do not affect every borrower equally. Zandi identified households carrying credit-card debt or home-equity lines of credit as vulnerable to further rate increases. He also pointed to heavily indebted companies whose private-equity owners had extended debt maturities to keep payments low. If corporate borrowing costs stayed high, he said, bankruptcies could follow. These were risks he described, not a tally of defaults that had already occurred.

He offered a possible counterpoint in large technology companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure. In his view, hyperscalers’ high margins and expected profits could make it easier for them to absorb higher interest costs. That is a qualified assessment, not a guarantee that those firms will be unaffected.

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Does Zandi predict a stock-market collapse?

No. He characterized higher rates as pressure on valuations rather than a trigger for a sudden market crash: “The run-up in rates is a corrosive on valuations. It’s not a cliff event.” He also said: “AI is running on its own dynamic, and expectations for future profits are quite high,” using a marble-floor analogy for AI-related valuations. His point was that higher rates can erode what investors are willing to pay, while AI expectations may operate as a separate force—not that rates alone will cause an abrupt collapse.

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Why are long-term yields rising?

The Yahoo Finance report described competing interpretations, not a settled explanation. It said Fed officials including Warsh viewed rising yields as a sign of robust growth. Zandi instead pointed to geopolitical friction and uncertainty, and raised the possibility of a premium associated with the Fed chair no longer providing forward guidance. These explanations should be understood as views reported in the article, not established causes.

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All market figures and interview claims in this account come from Jennifer Schonberger’s Yahoo Finance report published September 28, 2026. The report does not cite an official statistical agency or named economic dataset for these claims.

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