Showers and storms are forecast across Central Alabama through the weekend, with the broadest coverage expected Sunday. The National Weather Service (NWS) Birmingham forecast calls for the heaviest rain south of Interstate 20, then a shift to drier, cooler, seasonable weather beginning Tuesday. Rainfall amounts and the exact placement of heavier pockets remain uncertain.
When to expect the rain
The NWS Birmingham forecast issued Saturday, October 3, 2026, keeps showers and storms in the outlook through the weekend and identifies Sunday as the period of greatest coverage. The forecast setup includes a front stalled to the north and a disturbance moving inland from the Gulf; the disturbance’s strength and the front’s position are uncertain. Check the NWS Birmingham local forecast for updates as the system develops.
How rainfall could vary across Central Alabama
The forecast does not call for one uniform rainfall total across the region. The NWS discussion places the highest expected amounts south of I-20, nearer I-85 and the disturbance’s projected apex. Its general estimates are:
| Location | Forecast rainfall |
|---|---|
| Between I-20 and I-85 | Generally 1–2 inches |
| Along and south of I-85 | About 2–3 inches |
Localized heavier pockets are possible, but the forecast does not establish where they will occur. The NWS public local briefing summarizes amounts as generally 1–2 inches, locally higher south of I-20; the more detailed discussion specifies the potential for 2–3 inches along and south of I-85. Those geographic reference lines describe related but not identical areas. See the local briefing and forecast.
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What the probability estimates mean
The discussion gives probabilities for rainfall thresholds by Sunday night. These are forecast chances, not observed totals or guarantees for a particular town:
| Rainfall threshold by Sunday night | North of Central Alabama | South of Central Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| At least 1 inch | Roughly 80% across Central Alabama overall | Roughly 80% across Central Alabama overall |
| At least 2 inches | 30–50% | 60–80% |
| More than 3 inches | 10–20% | 30–40% |
The roughly 80% estimate applies across Central Alabama overall, while the higher-threshold ranges distinguish north from south. Local outcomes can differ from these broad-area probabilities.
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When cooler, drier weather is expected
A deep trough moving through the Midwest is forecast to push the cold front through Central Alabama by Tuesday morning. The NWS expects drier and cooler air to return Tuesday and persist into late next week, with seasonable highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The office’s forecast discussion says, “Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and persist into the end of next week.”
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What to keep in mind this weekend
- Plan for showers or storms through the weekend, especially Sunday, but check the local forecast before setting outdoor plans because coverage and timing can change.
- Use your location relative to I-20 and I-85 when interpreting rainfall estimates; the forecast places greater totals farther south.
- If traveling, allow for changing conditions during showers and check updated forecasts rather than treating the regional rainfall estimates as a precise prediction for your route.
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