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Croatia’s September 2026 inflation flash estimate was 4.7% year over year under the national consumer price index (CPI), while the harmonised European measure (HICP) was 4.3%. The 4.6% figure refers to the European Commission’s forecast for Croatia’s average inflation over all of 2026—not September’s result. The available official sources do not establish that the September reading was in line with a September-specific forecast.
What Croatia’s September inflation figures show
In a flash estimate released on 2 October 2026, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics said national CPI rose 4.7% compared with September 2025 and 0.9% compared with August 2026. On the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), inflation was 4.3% year over year and 0.0% month over month. These are preliminary estimates, not final September data. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics release reported both measures.
The annual rate compares prices with the same month a year earlier; the monthly rate compares them with the previous month. As the Bureau puts it: “The annual consumer price index measures the changes in prices in the current month compared to the same month of the previous year, while the monthly index measures the changes in prices in the current month compared to the previous month.”
Why the 4.6% figure is different
The European Commission’s Spring 2026 forecast, published on 21 May, projected annual inflation in Croatia of 4.6% for calendar year 2026. It listed 4.4% for 2025 and forecast 2.7% for 2027. These are annual forecast figures, not observed September inflation rates. The Commission said it expected inflation to rise in 2026 as energy inflation accelerated amid the Middle East conflict, with energy costs passing through to services, wage pressures persisting and fuel costs filtering into food supply chains. The Commission’s Croatia forecast describes that outlook.
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So the figures are not contradictory: 4.7% is Croatia’s September CPI flash rate, while 4.6% is a forecast for the full year. The official sources cited here do not verify that September’s result matched a market consensus for that month.
CPI and HICP: which measure should you use?
CPI is Croatia’s national measure of price changes based on private-household consumption. HICP follows a harmonised European method intended to make inflation comparable across countries. Both use the same representative basket, but HICP also includes consumption by institutional households and non-residents in Croatia’s economic territory; national CPI does not.
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For a question about Croatia’s domestic inflation measure, use CPI. For comparison with other EU countries, HICP is the appropriate measure. Compare like with like: the same index, the same time horizon and the same release status.
Which prices rose fastest in the CPI flash estimate?
Energy was the fastest-rising category in Croatia’s September CPI flash data, up 20.5% year over year. Services rose 7.6%; food, beverages and tobacco edged up 0.2%; and non-food industrial goods excluding energy fell 1.4% year over year. Monthly changes differed from annual rates:
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| September CPI category | Year over year | Month over month |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 20.5% | 2.7% |
| Services | 7.6% | -0.7% |
| Food, beverages and tobacco | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Non-food industrial goods excluding energy | -1.4% | 2.8% |
These are CPI special aggregates in the Croatian Bureau of Statistics’ September flash release. A negative monthly rate alongside a positive annual rate—or the reverse—can occur because the comparisons cover different periods.
How Croatia compared with the euro area
Eurostat’s 2 October flash release put euro-area HICP inflation at 3.8% year over year and 0.6% month over month in September, up from 3.2% year over year in August. Croatia’s HICP flash estimate was 4.3% year over year and unchanged month over month. These are HICP comparisons; they should not be mixed with Croatia’s national CPI rate. Eurostat’s September flash release gives the euro-area estimate and Croatia’s harmonised figure.
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Eurostat’s euro-area category estimates were 18.8% for energy, 3.2% for services, 1.4% for food, alcohol and tobacco, and 1.1% for non-energy industrial goods, all year over year. Those are euro-area rates, not Croatian category figures.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When final September figures are due
The Croatian Bureau of Statistics said its flash estimate used retail-price data covering about 80%–90% of received and processed data by the end of September; subsequently processed data are incorporated into the final release. Final Croatian CPI data for September were scheduled for 15 October 2026. Eurostat scheduled full September HICP data for 16 October 2026. Until those releases, the figures should be described as flash or preliminary estimates.
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