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What the September poll found
The headline result comes from the Messina Group (TMG) survey conducted from 12–24 September 2026. The Independent reports that 49% supported rejoining the EU and 28.5% opposed it. The Guardian report republished by AOL says the poll was weighted by the 2016 referendum result and considered seven possible UK-EU relationship options; its account is available through AOL’s republication of The Guardian’s report.
Those figures should be read as reported poll results, not as a referendum outcome or a definitive measure of all British voters. The original TMG questionnaire, full tables and complete technical documentation are not available in the cited coverage. As a result, the precise question wording, recruitment method, detailed weighting and subgroup results cannot be independently assessed here.
Other relationship options drew support too
The reported TMG findings cover more than a simple choice between rejoining and staying out. They include closer arrangements that would not amount to EU membership:
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| Option or preference | Reported support | Reported opposition |
|---|---|---|
| Rejoin the EU | 49% | 28.5% |
| Keep the existing relationship while cutting as many trade barriers as possible | 48.2% | 20.9% |
| Join a customs union | 47.1% | 20.7% |
| Join the single market | 45.1% | Not stated in the cited Guardian report |
| Associate membership | 45.5% | Not stated in the cited Guardian report |
These figures are reported by The Independent and The Guardian, as carried in AOL’s Guardian republication. The published accounts do not show whether every option was mutually exclusive or tested with identical terms, so they do not establish a definitive ranking of policy packages.
A separate Ipsos poll asked different questions
Ipsos published a separate survey on 8 June 2026, based on 1,137 British adults aged 18 and over interviewed through the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel from 14–20 May. Ipsos says the sample was representative, weighted to match the population profile, and conducted in partnership with King’s College London and UK in a Changing Europe. In that survey, 52% said the UK should apply to rejoin the EU, while 33% said it should stay out. The results and technical note are on Ipsos’s publication.
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Ipsos also asked likely voters how they would vote in a hypothetical referendum: 58% said they would vote to rejoin and 37% to stay out. Excluding “don’t knows” produced a 61% to 39% split. These are not alternative readings of the TMG result: they come from a different survey, use different questions and refer to a different field period.
Support for rejoining is not the same as support for a referendum
In the May Ipsos survey, 48% supported holding a referendum on EU membership before the next general election and 29% opposed one. Asked about a referendum after the next election, 49% supported it and 26% opposed it. A person can favour closer EU ties without wanting a referendum on that schedule, so these figures measure a separate question from whether the UK should apply to rejoin.
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TMG’s reported timing preferences also varied: 25.9% preferred immediate rejoining, 22.9% preferred rejoining within three years and 8.4% preferred doing so over the next decade. These are preferences about timing, not a direct measure of whether the public would vote for a specific negotiated deal.
Age and party differences in Ipsos’s findings
Ipsos reported differences by age and recalled voting intention. In its hypothetical referendum question, 68% of 18–34-year-olds and 58% of 35–54-year-olds said they would vote to rejoin; among respondents aged 55 and older, 50% said they would vote to stay out. By party, the reported rejoin-vote figures were 84% among Labour voters, 80% among Liberal Democrat voters and 86% among Green voters. The stay-out figures were 56% among Conservative voters and 71% among Reform voters. These subgroup figures describe Ipsos’s May 2026 survey, not the September TMG poll. Details appear in Ipsos’s report.
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What the results do—and do not—say about Brexit
The Guardian’s account of the TMG poll says 52.4% thought leaving the EU had been wrong, compared with 29.7% who thought it had been right; 17.9% did not know. On whether Brexit had been a success, 54.9% called it a failure, 12.2% a success, 23.2% neither and 9.7% did not know. These are separate assessments of Brexit, not votes on a specific rejoining proposal.
The same report says more than two-thirds thought EU trade was more important than trade with the US or China if they had to choose; four in five wanted to keep the pound; and 53.4% supported staying in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), against 24.2% who opposed it. The reporting does not establish that respondents were told these positions would be conditions of EU re-entry. They illustrate why broad support for rejoining does not, by itself, specify what terms people would accept.
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Could a referendum produce the same result?
Polling about a hypothetical vote is not a guarantee of how a campaign or ballot would unfold. Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’s Director of Politics, cautioned: “We should be aware that a future referendum might play out differently in practice.” He also said immigration would remain a key issue in a campaign and that public views become more complex when people consider trade-offs in the UK-EU relationship. His comments and the survey findings are published by Ipsos.
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