People born in Europe in 2025 are projected to experience an average of 3.2 more years of extreme fire-weather conditions over their lifetimes than people born in 1950—an 84% increase, according to a 2026 peer-reviewed study. These are modelled cohort averages, not personal forecasts: fire weather describes conditions that favor fire, not a guarantee that a wildfire will occur.
What the Europe-wide comparison says
The study, “Increasing lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather under climate change in Europe,” estimates how much of a cohort’s lifetime is spent under weather conditions associated with greater likelihood of fire ignition and spread and more difficult suppression. Its authors used an ensemble of bias-adjusted, downscaled global climate models and developed dem4cli, an open-source Python package for integrating demographic data into climate-hazard assessments. The article appeared in Environmental Research Letters in 2026.
For people born in Europe in 2025, projected lifetime exposure is 3.2 years higher on average than for those born in 1950, an 84% increase. That is a comparison between modelled generations, not a claim that each 2025-born person will experience exactly 3.2 extra years. The cohorts also have different modelled lifetimes: reporting on the study attributes 86% of the average difference to climate and 14% to longer lifetimes.
How projections differ by European region and warming pathway
The regional ranges reported by The Energy Mix for people born in 2025 show substantial variation. They are regional projected ranges, not a value assigned to every person living in a region, and should not be read as statistical confidence intervals.
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| Region | 1.5°C pathway: projected lifetime exposure | 2.6°C current-policy scenario: projected lifetime exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Europe | 0.6–6 years | 0.7–7.4 years |
| Western and Central Europe | 2.4–7.2 years | 2.9–8.6 years |
| Southern Europe | 1.5–7.7 years | 1.6–9.5 years |
The 2.6°C figure is the warming pathway framed in the report as the median expected end-of-century warming under current policies; it is a scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. Across the regions shown, the reported ranges are generally higher under that pathway than under 1.5°C, and Southern Europe has the highest upper range in both.
Portugal illustrates country-level variation
The study abstract projects that, under current policies, people born in Portugal in 2025 will experience nearly twice the lifetime extreme fire-weather exposure of those born in 1950. In the most exposed regions of northeastern Portugal, the projected exposure reaches up to 2.5 times as much. The authors also estimate that each additional degree of global warming by 2100 adds approximately 270 days of extreme fire-weather exposure over the lifetime of a person born in Portugal in 2025. These are Portugal-specific model projections, not estimates for every European country or individual.
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What “extreme fire weather” does—and does not—mean
Fire weather is about meteorological conditions conducive to fire. More extreme conditions can make ignition and spread more likely and suppression harder, but they do not establish that a fire will start or that a particular place will burn. The measure is not equivalent to wildfire occurrence, burned area, property loss, smoke exposure, or an individual’s total wildfire risk. Those outcomes also depend on ignition, vegetation and other fuels, terrain, land use, where people and assets are located, and emergency response.
The study abstract does not set out every input or threshold used in the final measure. The figures therefore support a comparison of projected exposure, not a more precise claim about a specific weather threshold or a person’s likely experience.
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What the scenario comparison means for mitigation
As reported by The Energy Mix, limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than following the 2.6°C current-policy scenario reduces projected lifetime exposure for the 2025 cohort by an average of 1.3 years. The authors describe avoided warming as a way to lower young generations’ exposure to extreme fire weather. That is a reduction in projected physical exposure, not elimination of wildfire risk: the study does not show that mitigation replaces local fire prevention or adaptation.
Because the estimates depend on warming pathways, climate models, demographic assumptions, and regional conditions, they are best used to understand broad generational and geographic patterns. They are not individual risk forecasts.
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Sources and study details
- Pietroiusti et al., “Increasing lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather under climate change in Europe,” Environmental Research Letters, 2026, volume 21, issue 18, article 184001.
- The Energy Mix, October 1, 2026, for the regional scenario ranges, the climate-versus-lifetime attribution, and the reported 1.3-year pathway difference.
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