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Why the EU Is Worried About Rising Imports from China

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The European Commission is flagging sustained import increases at falling prices across a range of products, with China and Chinese-origin goods identified as the main driver. The warning is a monitoring signal—not a finding that the imports are illegal or that trade rules have been broken.

What the EU official said

On 1 October 2026, Denis Redonnet, the European Commission’s chief trade enforcement officer, told the European Parliament’s trade committee that the Commission’s import surveillance results showed potentially worrying trends for almost a quarter of imports into the EU. Reuters reported Redonnet saying China and Chinese-origin goods were the main driver. He singled out machinery, textiles, basic metals and chemicals as sectors with sustained, abnormal import growth. Reuters reported the remarks; the available report does not give the exact denominator or list the product codes behind the “almost a quarter” figure.

“Worrying” is Redonnet’s description of patterns the monitoring system has identified. It does not mean that almost a quarter of EU imports have been proven to be dumped, subsidised or otherwise unlawful.

What the import barometer measures

The Commission reworked its monitoring approach in 2026 to look for longer-lasting increases in imports alongside falling prices, a pattern it considers relevant to concerns about industrial overcapacity and its effects on EU producers. Its barometer uses Eurostat trade data to identify product codes for further assessment. It is meant to help inform possible targeted, proportionate and timely protection, not to impose a tariff or decide a trade case by itself. The Commission’s import-surveillance information describes the system’s purpose.

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Product codes and unit values

The Commission’s FAQ says the monitoring examines 8-digit Combined Nomenclature (CN8) product codes. It calculates unit values—used as a proxy for prices—by dividing import value by net mass. The barometer is published quarterly because it is designed to identify longer-term trends rather than react to a single short-lived change. The Commission’s FAQ explains the methodology.

Eurostat data are used because they are cleaned and harmonised. Surveillance data may be more recent, but the Commission says they can be preliminary and potentially erroneous. A code that meets the barometer’s criteria is a reason to look more closely; information from industry can help assess whether the statistical pattern corresponds to actual injury.

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How the headline figure differs from China’s share of imports

“Almost a quarter” and China’s share of EU imports are not the same statistic. The first is Redonnet’s account of barometer results; the second measures the value of goods supplied by China. Eurostat reported that in the second quarter of 2026 China supplied €153.6 billion, or 21.9% of all extra-EU goods imports. Imports from China were up 7.9% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Eurostat published those figures on 26 August 2026.

Figure What it measures Period and source
Almost a quarter of EU imports Imports with potentially worrying barometer trends, as described by Redonnet; the exact denominator and product-code list were not given in the report Reported on 1 October 2026 by Reuters, citing Redonnet
21.9%, or €153.6 billion China’s share and value of all extra-EU goods imports Q2 2026; Eurostat
7.9% increase Change in EU imports from China by value Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025; Eurostat

The barometer focuses on product-level patterns, including sustained increases at decreasing unit values. Eurostat’s 7.9% figure is a year-over-year change in imports from China; it does not show how many individual product codes met the barometer’s criteria.

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The scale of EU-China goods trade

Reuters reported that the EU imported €2.53 trillion in goods overall in 2025, including €571 billion from China, and recorded a €360 billion goods trade deficit with China that year. Those annual totals provide context for the relationship’s scale, but they do not explain the barometer’s product-level flags.

Reuters also reported 32 new EU trade-defence cases in 2025, compared with 33 in 2024 and a historical annual average of 12. More than one third of the new 2025 investigations involved chemicals. Redonnet said 27 new cases had opened by 1 October 2026. These case counts are figures reported by Reuters, not an independently checked tally of the Commission’s case register.

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What could happen next—and what has not happened

A barometer flag can prompt additional scrutiny, but it is not itself a formal investigation or a trade-defence measure. Any later action would require the relevant assessment and process; the monitoring result alone does not establish that a particular exporter or country violated EU rules.

Reuters reported on 1 October 2026 that Brussels was seeking some form of Chinese export management. That was a negotiating aim reported at the time, not an agreed outcome.

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What remains unclear about “almost a quarter”

The published account of Redonnet’s statement does not include the underlying table, the number of flagged CN8 codes, the precise denominator or the calculation that produced “almost a quarter.” The Commission’s public description explains the barometer’s purpose and method, but does not independently confirm that specific figure. The claim should therefore remain attributed to Redonnet as reported by Reuters rather than treated as a fully documented count of imports.

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