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Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow more slowly in 2027, not to shrink. LSEG IBES consensus estimates reported by Reuters put growth at 35% in 2026 and 15% in 2027—a 20-percentage-point deceleration, while still forecasting positive growth. Reuters says the 15% estimate is also above the 10% median annualized earnings-growth rate over the past 35 years cited by Barclays strategists. Reuters report, October 1, 2026.
What the 35% and 15% forecasts mean
The figures are forecasts for S&P 500 earnings growth in two different calendar years, not reported results and not predictions that the index itself will rise or fall by those percentages. Reuters attributed the estimates to LSEG IBES. The underlying live estimate dataset, precise consensus methodology and constituent-level breakdown were not available in the cited reporting, so the percentages should be treated as a reported consensus snapshot, not an independently verified calculation.
| Forecast year | Expected earnings growth | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35% | LSEG IBES consensus as reported by Reuters; the highest expected rate since 2021, a year whose figure was affected by the post-pandemic rebound. |
| 2027 | 15% | LSEG IBES consensus as reported by Reuters; slower growth than in 2026, but still growth. |
The word “collapse” describes the sharp slowdown in the growth rate: 20 percentage points separate the two estimates. It does not mean earnings are forecast to fall 20%, or that profits are forecast to contract. The 2027 estimate is positive and exceeds the 10% median annualized rate over the past 35 years that Reuters attributes to Barclays equity strategists.
Why analysts expect growth to slow
A tough comparison after a strong year
When earnings have a particularly strong year, the following year’s percentage growth can be lower even if earnings continue to increase. The forecast compares expected 2027 growth with a 2026 outlook of 35%, which Reuters described as the highest rate since 2021. Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, captured the comparison problem in a quote attributed to Reuters: “We’ve had great earnings. The bad thing is the comparisons are going to be very difficult next year.”
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Cooling growth in AI-related capital spending
Reuters also identifies slower growth in AI capital spending as a reason analysts expect the pace of earnings growth to cool. This is an explanation reported by the news coverage, not proof that AI spending alone determines S&P 500 earnings. A forecast of slower investment growth does not establish how much revenue or profit any particular company will earn; outcomes can differ across companies and industries.
Questions about whether earnings growth has peaked
Barclays strategists have reported investor concern that earnings growth may peak in 2026. That is a concern about the direction of growth rates, not evidence that aggregate earnings have already peaked. Michael Arone of State Street Investment Management put the uncertainty this way in a quote attributed to the October 3 coverage: “I do think that the rate of earnings growth will slow. I think the question will be: by how much?”
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What the forecast does—and does not—say about the stock market
Earnings growth is only one input into stock prices. The October 1 Reuters analysis reported that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio was 19.2, down from 22 at the start of 2026 and a peak of 23.5 in October 2025. The October 3 article separately rounded the ratio to 19 from 22 at the start of the year. These are reporting snapshots, not interchangeable exact values.
A slower expected increase in earnings can matter to investors, but it does not by itself determine whether the index price rises or falls. Valuations, interest rates and expectations about future results also shape market performance. A change in the growth rate of profits is not the same measure as a change in share prices or index returns.
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How to interpret the headline
- “35% to 15%” compares forecast growth rates: LSEG IBES estimates reported by Reuters for 2026 and 2027.
- “Collapse” is emphatic wording for deceleration: the 2027 forecast is 20 percentage points lower, but remains a forecast of earnings growth.
- The historical comparison matters: Reuters says 15% is above the 10% median annualized earnings-growth rate over the past 35 years cited by Barclays strategists.
- These are estimates, not outcomes: forecasts can change as analysts revise assumptions and companies report results.
Sources: Reuters analysis republished by LSE Financial News, October 1, 2026; 24/7 Wall St., October 3, 2026.
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