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More New Zealanders in a reported Verian poll expected supermarket policies not to lower grocery prices within three years than expected them to: 54% said no, compared with 32% who thought prices would fall. A separate Talbot Mills survey commissioned by a cooperative and leaked to Stuff is also part of the debate, but the available reporting does not give its headline results. The polls should not be conflated.
What the reported polls actually show
Verian: most respondents did not expect lower prices
In figures reported by Bryce Edwards on 3 October 2026, 32% thought proposed supermarket policies would lead to lower grocery prices within three years. Another 54% said they would not, while 14% did not know or preferred not to say. These are responses about expectations, not evidence that a policy will—or will not—change prices.
Talbot Mills: sample details, but no toplines in the available report
A separate Talbot Mills survey, commissioned by a cooperative, was reported as having surveyed 1,325 people from 16 to 21 September 2026. Its headline results were leaked to Stuff, but the retrieved account does not state those results, the question wording, weighting, or full methodology. That means the Verian percentages cannot be presented as findings from the leaked poll.
What “splitting supermarkets” could mean
The phrase covers different proposals aimed at different parts of the grocery business. Foodstuffs operates Pak’nSave, New World and Four Square. The Spinoff describes a structure in which individual stores are owned independently while branding, promotions, wholesale purchasing and distribution are centralised. The distinction matters: separating retail brands is not the same intervention as separating supply or creating another owner.
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Separate Foodstuffs’ supermarket chains
One proposal would split Foodstuffs into separate nationwide chains organised around its brands, including separating Pak’nSave from New World and Four Square. The intended change is in the relationship between those retail brands. The cited reporting does not establish what the resulting businesses would charge or how prices would change.
Separate retail from wholesale supply
Labour’s proposal would separate supermarket retail from wholesale supply. As The Spinoff explains, the intended competition mechanism is to address competition among buyers and improve access to suppliers for smaller stores or potential entrants. This targets the supply relationship rather than simply creating separate brand operators.
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Create a publicly owned competitor
The Green Party has proposed KiwiMart as a publicly owned grocery competitor. Pacific Media Network reported a proposed $2.8 billion plan that would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to divest at least 120 stores and distribution-centre capacity into public ownership. Those are reported proposal details, not an independently verified estimate of the plan’s likely effects.
How the proposals differ
| Proposal | What would change | Competition mechanism described |
|---|---|---|
| Split Foodstuffs’ chains | Separate its brands into nationwide chains, including Pak’nSave, New World and Four Square. | Separate retail-brand operations; the cited sources do not establish the resulting price effect. |
| Separate retail and wholesale | Separate supermarket retail from wholesale supply. | Address buyer competition and supplier access for smaller stores or possible entrants. |
| KiwiMart | Create a publicly owned competitor; the reported proposal includes divestment of at least 120 stores and distribution-centre capacity. | Add another grocery operator. The reported $2.8 billion plan is a proposal, not a verified forecast of outcomes. |
The Spinoff reports that Foodstuffs and Woolworths together control 82% of New Zealand’s grocery market. The retrieved article does not identify the underlying dataset, precise measurement date or calculation method, so the figure should be treated as a reported market-share estimate rather than a fully documented measurement here.
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Does the polling tell shoppers whether prices will fall?
No. The Verian result records what respondents expected about lower prices within three years; the Talbot Mills survey’s results are not stated in the available account. Neither poll, as reported here, measures the actual price effects of implementing any of the proposals.
The practical question is therefore not only whether a supermarket business is split, but what is separated and whether that change creates meaningful rivalry: between brands, among buyers seeking suppliers, or through a new competitor. The cited reporting lays out those different mechanisms, but does not establish which would produce lower checkout prices.
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