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Asteroid (99942) Apophis is not on an impact course with Earth. On April 13, 2029, it is expected to pass about 32,000 kilometers above Earth’s surface—an exceptionally close approach for an asteroid of its size, but one that NASA says poses no impact risk for at least the next 100 years under current calculations.
ESA and JAXA are preparing the RAMSES mission to observe that encounter. The spacecraft is planned to rendezvous with Apophis before the flyby and study how Earth’s gravity affects the asteroid. It is not designed to destroy, deflect or “stop” Apophis.
How close will Apophis come to Earth?
Apophis is expected to make its closest approach on Friday, April 13, 2029. ESA estimates that it will pass approximately 32,000 kilometers—about 20,000 miles—above Earth’s surface.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThat is roughly one-tenth of the average Earth–Moon distance and below the altitude of geostationary satellites, which orbit about 35,786 kilometers above the equator. The distance is measured from Earth’s surface; it should not be confused with a measurement from Earth’s center.
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The encounter is unusually close for an object estimated to be about 340 to 375 meters across. ESA compares Apophis’s scale approximately to that of a large cruise ship. According to ESA, an encounter of this kind involving an asteroid of this size may occur only once every roughly 5,000 to 10,000 years.
That rarity explains the mission interest—but not because Apophis is expected to hit Earth.
Is Apophis going to hit Earth?
No, not according to current NASA calculations. When Apophis was discovered in 2004, astronomers had too little information about its orbit to rule out possible impacts in 2029, 2036 and 2068. Additional observations, including radar measurements made in 2021, greatly improved the orbit estimate.
NASA later ruled out the previously discussed 2068 impact scenario and says Apophis has no impact risk with Earth for at least the next 100 years. That conclusion applies to present observations and calculations; it does not mean scientists can describe the asteroid as harmless forever.
Apophis remains classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid. That technical classification reflects an asteroid’s size and orbital geometry. It does not mean the object is currently predicted to collide with Earth.
NASA’s background information is available in its Apophis facts overview and its analysis explaining why Earth is safe from an Apophis impact for at least a century.
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What ESA’s RAMSES mission will do
ESA’s Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety, or RAMSES, is planned to launch in 2028. Its intended sequence is:
- Launch before the 2029 encounter.
- Rendezvous with Apophis before its close approach.
- Accompany the asteroid as it passes Earth.
- Measure Apophis before and after the flyby.
- Study changes caused by Earth’s gravity.
Earth’s gravity will alter Apophis’s trajectory as it passes. The close approach may also affect aspects of the asteroid’s physical state, such as its surface, shape, spin or the movement of material on or near it. RAMSES is intended to measure and characterize those effects rather than assume in advance that they will be dramatic.
This makes the mission a natural planetary-defense experiment. Earth will provide the gravitational encounter, while the spacecraft records what happens to a large near-Earth asteroid before, during and after the passage.
ESA describes RAMSES in its mission overview and its announcement about cooperation with JAXA.
What is JAXA contributing?
ESA and Japan’s space agency, JAXA, have agreed to cooperate on RAMSES. According to ESA, JAXA’s announced contributions include:
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- An infrared imaging instrument.
- Launch aboard Japan’s H3 rocket.
JAXA’s description presents RAMSES as a mission to explore and observe Apophis as part of planetary-defense activities. It is not an emergency interception mission and does not call for a kinetic impact or another attempt to push Apophis away from Earth.
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The cooperation agreement is described by JAXA’s official announcement. Because RAMSES is a planned mission, its launch, rendezvous and operations should be described as expected or intended rather than as completed events.
RAMSES is not a deflection mission
The most important distinction is between studying planetary defense and actively defending Earth from Apophis.
Planetary defense includes finding near-Earth objects, calculating their orbits, measuring their physical properties, estimating impact probabilities and developing possible responses. If an asteroid were found to pose a credible future threat, one possible response could be a kinetic impactor designed to change its orbit.
RAMSES will not strike Apophis. Its value is indirect but significant: detailed measurements of an asteroid’s structure, surface behavior, spin and response to gravity can improve models used when scientists assess future deflection options.
NASA’s DART mission demonstrated that a spacecraft can alter the orbit of an asteroid moonlet. ESA’s Hera mission is examining the results of that impact. Those missions provide context for planetary defense, but they do not mean RAMSES will repeat DART’s technique on Apophis.
Where does JAXA’s DESTINY+ fit in?
DESTINY+ is a separate JAXA spacecraft, not another name for RAMSES and not a deflection vehicle.
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- Adhesive backing attaches the PopGrip to your case or device. Will not stick to silicone,leather,waterproof,or highly textured cases. Works best with smooth,hard,plastic cases.
- Not compatible with wireless charging
- Printed top is swappable with other compatible PopGrip models. Just press flat,turn 90 degrees until you hear a click and remove to swap.
JAXA’s current project information describes DESTINY+ as planned for a 2028 rideshare with ESA’s RAMSES spacecraft. It is intended to fly by Apophis and later continue toward asteroid Phaethon, with the Phaethon encounter targeted for 2030.
The two spacecraft therefore have related scientific objectives but different roles. RAMSES is ESA’s mission for accompanying and studying Apophis through the close Earth encounter, while DESTINY+ is a separate JAXA mission with its own trajectory and later Phaethon objective. Details are available on the DESTINY+ project page.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why study Apophis if it is not dangerous?
Apophis combines several features that are rarely available in one mission:
- It is large enough to be important for impact-risk studies.
- It will pass unusually close to Earth.
- Its impact risk has been ruled out for at least a century under current calculations.
- Its encounter will expose it to a strong, measurable change in gravitational conditions.
That combination gives scientists a valuable opportunity to observe how a near-Earth asteroid behaves during a close planetary encounter. The data could improve predictions about asteroid surfaces, internal structure, spin changes and the response of different kinds of asteroids to future interventions.
In short, the immediate objective is observation and characterization. The long-term benefit is better planetary-defense knowledge. Stopping Apophis is not the objective.
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Could Earth’s gravity change the asteroid?
Yes. Earth’s gravity will change Apophis’s orbit as it passes, and the encounter could also produce measurable changes in its shape, surface or rotation. RAMSES is intended to determine how substantial those changes are.
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- Features a distressed retro graphic of the near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis with the flyby date April 13 2029 and humorous quote Close Encounter Zero Drama.
- The ideal statement design for astronomy lovers, stargazers, space science teachers, astrophysicists, cosmologists, and celestial event enthusiasts.
- Magnetically snaps on and off your phone case so you can easily swap between MagSafe compatible accessories.
- Adaptor ring included. Make any phone case MagSafe compatible by attaching the adaptor ring. A phone case is required but not included to use the wallet.
- Printed top is swappable. Close and twist to swap the top with a new design with other compatible PopGrip models.
That does not mean Apophis is expected to break apart, suffer catastrophic deformation or become newly dangerous. The point of the mission is to measure the actual response rather than rely only on models.
Will people be able to see Apophis?
ESA and NASA say Apophis may be visible to the naked eye from parts of Earth, particularly across the Eastern Hemisphere. ESA has estimated that as many as roughly two billion people could have an opportunity to see it under suitable conditions.
That estimate is not a guarantee of visibility everywhere. Local conditions will depend on the asteroid’s position and brightness, the time of observation, weather, light pollution and the observer’s location. “Visible to the naked eye” also does not mean Apophis will appear large like the Moon; it would still look like a moving point of light.
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Observers will need location-specific timing and viewing information closer to April 2029.
The accurate headline
Apophis will make a remarkably close but safe pass above Earth. ESA and JAXA are preparing a joint effort to watch that encounter in detail, using it as a rare natural experiment in asteroid behavior and planetary defense.
The accurate summary is simple: Apophis is not being stopped. It is being studied because its safe close approach offers an unusually valuable chance to learn how asteroids respond to a planet’s gravity.
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