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By 2046, many familiar technologies may still exist—but no longer be the usual way to get something done. Paper checks, passwords and fax machines are strong candidates to become uncommon; cash, physical keys and gasoline cars are more likely to remain useful in particular situations or places.
Here, “obsolete” means no longer the default for mainstream users, not necessarily extinct. The forecast is for the United States and is uncertain: infrastructure, regulation, cost, accessibility and personal preference will shape how quickly each change happens. Some transitions will be slower or different elsewhere.
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Most likely to stop being the default
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Paper checks
Likely replacement: Direct deposit, electronic bill payment, bank transfers and digital wallets. The U.S. federal government stopped issuing paper checks for most federal payments beginning September 30, 2025, an important sign of the direction of travel (U.S. Treasury). Checks are likely to become exceptional by 2046, rather than vanish: some businesses, older adults, people without bank accounts and certain legal transactions may still rely on them.
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Password-only sign-ins
Likely replacement: Passkeys, device biometrics and hardware security keys. Passkeys are designed to replace passwords and resist common phishing attacks; FIDO Alliance research reported that 87% of surveyed U.S. and U.K. organizations had deployed or were deploying them for employee sign-ins (FIDO Alliance). Passwords will likely linger in legacy systems and account recovery. Secure recovery matters: losing access to a device or credential should not mean losing an account.
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Fax machines
Likely replacement: Secure document portals, electronic signatures and digital health or legal records. Faxing persists in some medical, legal and government workflows because institutions have not modernized together. It is a strong candidate for mainstream obsolescence, but replacing a fax with ordinary email does not automatically provide the same identity checks, security or audit trail.
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Residential landline phones
Likely replacement: Mobile phones and internet calling. A desk phone in a home is already less essential for many households and may be unusual by 2046. Wired communications will still matter for businesses, elevators, alarms, hospitals and emergency infrastructure; the network may remain even when the familiar telephone does not.
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Paper tickets and boarding passes
Likely replacement: Mobile tickets, QR codes, digital wallets and account-based entry. Digital credentials make changes and check-in easier to manage, so paper may become the exception. It will still be useful for people without a compatible phone, as an outage backup, or as a souvenir. Travel and accessibility requirements will affect adoption.
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Physical address books and phone directories
Likely replacement: Searchable contacts, cloud synchronization and digital directories. These are highly likely to leave everyday use, though a paper list can be a useful emergency backup. Cloud contacts are not invulnerable: account loss, sync errors and vendor lock-in can make an offline copy valuable.
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Paper government forms
Likely replacement: Online portals, electronic signatures and digital credentials. Digital processing can reduce queues and manual data entry, but moving a service online is not automatically an improvement for everyone. Paper or assisted options will remain important for people with disabilities, limited connectivity or digital access, and during outages or emergencies.
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Physical formats that may move to the sidelines
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Paper receipts
Likely replacement: Email, text messages and in-app purchase histories. Digital receipts may become routine, but they create their own problems: they can expose shopping data, depend on an account and become difficult to retrieve after a service closes. Paper will remain useful for cash purchases, returns and people who prefer not to share an email address.
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Printed instruction manuals
Likely replacement: Searchable online guides, QR-linked instructions, video and interactive troubleshooting. Digital documentation is easier to update, but may be unavailable if a device has no internet connection or a manufacturer shuts down its support site. Safety instructions and products used offline are reasons printed material may endure.
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Paper maps for everyday navigation
Likely replacement: Phone maps, vehicle displays and real-time route guidance. For routine trips, digital navigation is likely to remain more convenient. Paper maps still work without a charged device, network coverage or a functioning account; keeping one for travel or emergencies is sensible rather than old-fashioned.
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DVDs and Blu-ray discs as mainstream distribution
Likely replacement: Streaming and digital delivery. Physical discs are likely to become a niche format, not disappear: collectors, libraries and viewers seeking offline access or lasting access to a particular title have reasons to keep them. Streaming catalogs can change, and access to a digital library is not always the same as owning a disc.
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Cable and satellite TV packages
Likely replacement: Internet-delivered video, live-streaming bundles and free ad-supported services. Traditional packages may become a niche choice as viewing shifts online. But streaming fragmentation—several subscriptions for different shows or sports—can make one bundled bill attractive again. Broadband availability and live sports rights will influence the outcome.
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Traditional broadcast TV schedules
Likely replacement: On-demand libraries, live streams and personalized recommendations. Scheduled entertainment may decline as viewers choose when and what to watch. Broadcast itself can persist for live sports, local news and emergency alerts, and remains useful where broadband is limited.
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Physical credit and debit cards for everyday purchases
Likely replacement: Tokenized phone wallets, wearables and other account-based payments. A card is largely a credential, and a digital version can perform the same job. Physical cards will remain valuable when a phone is lost, out of power or unsupported by a merchant, and when people want a payment fallback.
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Cash for routine purchases
Likely replacement: Cards, mobile wallets and direct digital payments. Cash may become less common in everyday shopping, but disappearance is a much stronger and less defensible prediction. It supports privacy, works without some digital infrastructure and serves people without bank accounts. The Federal Reserve has reported declining ATM cash withdrawals, while cash remains significant in circulation (Federal Reserve).
Hardware and infrastructure likely to change
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Standalone GPS devices
Likely replacement: Phone navigation, built-in vehicle systems and connected navigation tools. A dedicated consumer GPS unit may be hard to justify when a phone already provides maps and traffic. Specialized navigation for aviation, marine use, trucking and remote travel is different: reliability and operation beyond cellular coverage can keep dedicated devices relevant.
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Traditional metal car keys
Likely replacement: Proximity fobs, phone credentials and other electronic access. In new vehicles, a metal key may cease to be the driver’s everyday tool. That does not mean the key disappears from the vehicle fleet: older cars will remain on the road, and a physical emergency override can still be useful when electronics fail.
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USB-A ports and single-purpose chargers
Likely replacement: USB-C, power-delivery standards and wireless charging. New consumer devices may increasingly leave older connectors behind, but the installed base of cables, cars and accessories slows the transition. A connector can be obsolete in new products and still be everywhere in homes.
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Desktop computer towers for ordinary home use
Likely replacement: Laptops, tablets and compact or cloud-connected computers. Many households may not need a separate tower. But desktops are unlikely to vanish: gaming, engineering, video production, local AI and upgradeability favor larger, repairable machines. The tower may become a specialist workstation rather than the standard family PC.
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Local file storage as something users manage themselves
Likely replacement: Cloud synchronization and managed storage. Ordinary users may increasingly think in terms of files being available across devices instead of which drive holds them. Local copies will remain important for privacy, speed, offline use and recovery. Synchronization is not the same as a backup: accidental deletion or a compromised account can affect synced files too.
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Physical keys for homes and offices
Likely replacement: Smart locks, mobile credentials and temporary access codes. Digital access can make it easier to share or revoke entry, but it depends on batteries, software and sometimes a cloud account. Mechanical keys are likely to survive as a backup and for renters, older buildings and owners who prefer a simpler system.
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Transport and services: less certain forecasts
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Gasoline-only passenger cars as the default new vehicle
Likely replacement: Battery-electric vehicles, hybrids and, in some uses, other alternative-fuel vehicles. U.S. government scenarios published in 2025 projected battery-electric vehicles could account for as much as 61% of new light-duty sales by 2030 in some scenarios; a Congressional Research Service report put EVs at about 20% of U.S. light-duty sales in 2024 (Department of Energy; Congressional Research Service). That supports a major transition, not a claim that gasoline cars will be gone by 2046. Charging access, price, climate, towing needs, policy and the long life of existing cars all matter.
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Human driving in some controlled settings
Likely replacement: Increasingly capable driver-assistance and automated systems. Driving may become optional for more trips or routes, especially in controlled environments, but widespread driver replacement remains uncertain. Reliability, safety, law, insurance, weather and public trust are hard constraints. Modeling of automated vehicles treats adoption as dependent on factors including safety and price (Department of Energy scenario study).
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Human-only first-line customer service
Likely replacement: AI agents, voice systems and automated self-service for routine questions. Basic account tasks and troubleshooting are candidates for automation, but complex disputes, emergencies and vulnerable customers still need human escalation. This is a change in how service is delivered—not the disappearance of customer-service workers or human accountability.
What determines whether a technology really becomes obsolete?
A replacement has to be more than technically possible. It needs to be affordable, reliable and easy to use; people and businesses must adopt it; and supporting infrastructure must be available. Regulation can accelerate change, while installed equipment, repair costs and institutional inertia can slow it. The Government Accountability Office notes that emerging technologies depend on maturity, markets and economies of scale—not invention alone (GAO).
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There is also a resilience trade-off. A phone can hold a ticket, payment card, key and map, but one dead battery or locked account can disable all four. Digital systems can make routine tasks simpler while creating new dependencies on power, networks and service providers. Cash, a physical key, a paper map or a local file can be useful precisely because it does not depend on the same system.
For the same reason, the paperless or automated option is not automatically the more accessible one. People may need an offline route, human assistance or a physical alternative. And replacing hardware has environmental costs: the International Energy Agency describes substantial mineral needs for the energy transition while noting that recycling and changing battery chemistries can reduce, but not eliminate, supply pressures (IEA).
What is most likely to survive?
Expect the old option to stick around wherever it provides a useful fallback, serves people excluded by digital-only systems, or works in a specialist setting. Cash can help during outages; paper maps and documents can work offline; physical media can preserve access to a title; and keys can open a door when a smart lock loses power. Gasoline cars will remain in the used fleet long after new-car preferences shift. Obsolescence usually means losing the default—not losing every reason to use something.
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