Some links on this page are affiliate links: if you buy through them we may earn a commission, at no extra cost to you.
The “2.8 days” figure is real, but it is not a countdown to a solar-storm disaster. It was the initial result of a model asking how long it might take for a serious collision in low Earth orbit if collision avoidance stopped. A solar storm could contribute to such a loss of control, but the study did not predict that a particular storm is coming or that satellites will fail on a fixed schedule.
Where the 2.8-day figure came from
In a December 2025 preprint, Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley and Samantha M. Lawler introduced the CRASH Clock—short for “Collision Realization And Significant Harm.” Using an orbital-object catalog from June 2025, the first version estimated a 2.8-day timescale for a potentially catastrophic collision if collision-avoidance activity or broad situational awareness were lost. Its comparable estimate for 2018 was 121 days. The preprint is the primary source for those initial figures.
That is a conditional risk estimate, not a prediction that a collision will happen 67.2 hours after a storm begins. It does not say a solar storm is imminent, that every satellite would lose control at once, or that one impact would automatically destroy the entire orbital environment. The paper examines a crowded orbital environment under a severe disruption scenario; it is not an end-to-end forecast of a specific storm disabling every satellite constellation.
The work is an arXiv preprint, so readers should distinguish it from a peer-reviewed journal publication unless a current publication record confirms otherwise. Its numbers are model outputs that depend on the catalog, assumptions and definition of a serious collision—not fixed physical constants.
#1 Best Overall
- HOBBY MODEL KIT – Unassembled model packed in an envelope with easy to follow instructions. Ideal for ages 14 and up.
- NO GLUE OR SOLDER NEEDED – Parts can be easily clipped from the metal sheets. Tweezers are the recommended tool for bending and twisting the connection tabs.
- VOYAGER – 1.5 Sheet Model with a moderate difficulty level. Assembled Size: 1.38 x 1.77 x 6.70 inches.
- FROM STEEL SHEETS TO 3D – Pop out the pieces and connect using tabs and holes. Includes illustrated instructions.
- HIGHLY DETAILED ETCHED MODEL – Display your 3D model once completed - collect and build them all.
The number has changed
The first 2.8-day result is not the only figure researchers have reported. In a later interview, the authors described a revised estimate of about 5.5 days for 2025 and 164 days for 2018, following community feedback and changes to assumptions. The IEEE Spectrum interview explains that revision. The Outer Space Institute’s CRASH Clock page later displayed 2.5 days on May 4, 2026. That page is a dated display of the metric, not evidence that a single unchanging clock has ticked down from 2.8 days.
These values should be read with their versions and dates attached. Catalog contents, modeling choices and the way the metric is calculated can change. A different displayed value does not mean that a collision has become more or less certain on a real-world deadline.
How a solar storm could raise the risk
A solar storm would not need to physically strike a satellite to affect it. One important pathway is through Earth’s upper atmosphere. During a strong geomagnetic storm, the atmosphere heats and expands upward. Satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) then encounter more atmospheric drag, which can lower their orbits and make their predicted paths less certain. Operators may need to adjust or raise orbits, perform collision-avoidance maneuvers, and spend propellant; added drag can also shorten a satellite’s useful lifetime.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteRank #2
- Model Kit
- May Require Paints and Glues to Assemble
- Accurate Scale Model
- Detailed Instructions Provided
- Decals/Transfers Included
Space weather can also disrupt radio communications and satellite navigation, and may affect spacecraft electronics or operations. If tracking data, command links or ground infrastructure are degraded, operators could have more difficulty determining where spacecraft are, exchanging warnings and coordinating maneuvers. The severity varies by storm, altitude, spacecraft design and operational capability. “Solar storms can disrupt satellite operations” is not the same claim as “a solar storm will disable an entire constellation.”
The risk chain is therefore conditional: solar-storm effects could complicate tracking or control; a sufficiently broad and prolonged loss of avoidance could leave more close approaches unmanaged; a collision could create debris. The CRASH Clock addresses the collision-risk part of that chain. It does not establish that every link will occur in a future storm.
Why crowded orbits leave less room for disruption
Megaconstellations have put many more satellites into heavily used orbital regions. More objects can mean more close approaches and more simultaneous coordination, as well as greater reliance on tracking systems, automated processes and timely maneuver decisions. If collision avoidance is interrupted, there may be less time for the system to recover before a damaging encounter.
Rank #3
- HOBBY MODEL KIT – Unassembled model packed in an envelope with easy to follow instructions. Ideal for ages 14 and up
- NO GLUE OR SOLDER NEEDED – Parts can be easily clipped from the metal sheets. Tweezers are the recommended tool for bending and twisting the connection tabs
- APOLLO CSM – 3.5 Sheet Model with a challenging difficulty level. Assembled Size: 5.07 L x 2.28 W x 3.45 H inches.
- FROM STEEL SHEETS TO 3D – Pop out the pieces and connect using tabs and holes. Includes illustrated instructions
- HIGHLY DETAILED ETCHED MODEL – Display your 3D model once completed - collect and build them all
The original comparison—121 days in 2018 versus 2.8 days using the June 2025 catalog—was intended to illustrate how the modeled environment had changed, not to claim that a particular collision was nearly due. Because later revisions produced different figures, the fairest takeaway is qualitative: crowded LEO can have a much shorter modeled margin for unmanaged encounters than it did several years earlier.
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The first-version calculations have also been summarized as roughly a 30% chance of a collision within 24 hours after collision-avoidance activity stops, and about a 26% chance of one involving a Starlink satellite. Those figures are model outputs under the study’s assumptions—not observed odds for an actual storm or universal probabilities for every orbital disruption. Results depend on which objects are counted, the catalog date, collision assumptions, the duration of the outage and whether some operators retain control.
Could a collision trigger Kessler syndrome?
Kessler syndrome describes a possible cascading process: a collision produces fragments, some fragments hit other objects, and further impacts produce still more debris. Over time, the hazard could make particular orbital regions more difficult or dangerous to use.
Rank #4
- HOBBY MODEL KIT – Unassembled model packed in an envelope with easy to follow instructions. Ideal for ages 14 and up.
- NO GLUE OR SOLDER NEEDED – Parts can be easily clipped from the metal sheets. Tweezers are the recommended tool for bending and twisting the connection tabs.
- JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE - 2.75 Sheet Model with a moderate difficulty level. Assembled Size: 4.13 L x 2.75 W x 2.75 H inches. 1:221 Scale. 62 Pieces
- FROM STEEL SHEETS TO 3D – Pop out the pieces and connect using tabs and holes. Includes illustrated instructions.
- HIGHLY DETAILED ETCHED MODEL – Display your 3D model once completed - collect and build them all.
That is a risk scenario, not an automatic result of one collision. Whether a cascade grows depends on factors such as the altitude and density of the affected region, the number and paths of fragments, and whether operators can maintain control, avoid debris or retire spacecraft. The CRASH Clock warns about exposure to collision risk under a severe loss-of-avoidance scenario; it does not prove that one impact would render all of LEO—or all space—unusable.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the May 2024 storm does—and does not—show
The May 2024 geomagnetic storm, often called the Gannon storm, offers a real example of space weather creating operational pressure in low orbit. The storm heated and expanded the upper atmosphere, increasing drag and complicating orbit prediction for satellites. That experience supports the point that geomagnetic storms can affect satellite operations.
It does not show that the fleet was on the verge of a global collision cascade, nor does it establish that a future storm would have the same effects. Reports that more than half of LEO satellites had to account for the storm or maneuver depend on how “had to account for” is defined, so that broad figure should not be treated as a count of satellites that narrowly avoided collision.
Best Value
- HOBBY MODEL KIT – Unassembled model packed in an envelope with easy to follow instructions. Ideal for ages 14 and up.
- NO GLUE OR SOLDER NEEDED – Parts can be easily clipped from the metal sheets. Tweezers are the recommended tool for bending and twisting the connection tabs.
- HUBBLE TELESCOPE – 1 Sheet Model with a moderate difficulty level. Assembled Size: 3.00 x 2.00 x 2.50 inches.
- FROM STEEL SHEETS TO 3D – Pop out the pieces and connect using tabs and holes. Includes illustrated instructions.
- HIGHLY DETAILED ETCHED MODEL – Display your 3D model once completed - collect and build them all.
Would a Carrington-scale storm wipe out satellites?
A Carrington-scale event is best treated as a severe hypothetical stress test, not a forecast. A major storm could affect atmospheric drag, communications, navigation, spacecraft systems and some ground infrastructure. But satellite fleets operate at different altitudes and have different shielding, redundancy, autonomy and procedures. The CRASH Clock study does not show that such an event would destroy every satellite, eliminate global communications or make all orbit unusable for decades.
The most consequential scenario would likely involve several problems overlapping: widespread effects on spacecraft or ground systems, degraded tracking or communications, loss of collision-avoidance commands, uncertain trajectories and a disruption that lasts long enough to prevent recovery. Partial control, resilient ground systems, autonomous avoidance or a rapid restoration of tracking could make the outcome less severe. Effects also vary by altitude; increased drag does not affect every orbit equally.
What can reduce the risk?
No single measure makes a crowded orbit immune to disruption. Risk reduction depends on operators, tracking providers and public authorities working together:
Recommended Free Tools
- Improve tracking and data sharing. More reliable, independent observations and timely exchange of conjunction and maneuver information can help operators make decisions even if one data source is degraded.
- Build resilience into operations. Redundant command links and ground infrastructure, fault protection, safe modes, and autonomous or semi-autonomous collision avoidance can help spacecraft cope when communications are interrupted. Autonomy still needs careful design and coordination.
- Coordinate maneuvers. Better common procedures and notifications can reduce conflicting decisions. More maneuvers are not automatically safer, since changing an orbit can temporarily add uncertainty if other operators do not know about it.
- Manage orbital shells responsibly. Conservative placement, reliable post-mission disposal and deorbiting, and debris-prevention rules can limit the long-term buildup of objects and reduce exposure.
- Stress-test for space weather. Operators can plan for outages and uncertain orbit estimates rather than assuming tracking, navigation and command systems will always work normally.
For satellite operators and policymakers, the issue is not a timer that can be read from a headline. It is the shrinking margin for managing close approaches if a dense orbital environment loses some of its tracking or avoidance capability.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
